Wynne defends campaigning for Trudeau

Published on Aug. 19, 2015, in the Waterloo Region Record.

Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne has frequently waded into federal politics through clashes with Stephen Harper, but in the midst of a federal election campaign she isn’t easing off — she has jumped in with both feet.

“I’ve also been clear that I support Justin Trudeau, and I will continue to look for a partner at the federal level that is bringing forward polices that will make sense for the people of Ontario.”

Read more. 

Ontario’s Wynne jumps into federal campaign

Published on Aug. 19, 2015, in The Chronicle Herald. 

Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne has frequently waded into federal politics through clashes with Stephen Harper, but in the midst of a federal election campaign she isn’t easing off — she has jumped in with both feet.

Wynne has been actively campaigning for federal Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, but nearly as often as she promotes her federal counterpart she slams the prime minister, which could be seen as payback for Stephen Harper’s attacks against her in last year’s provincial election.

“She certainly wants to score points with the federal Liberal party and have Justin Trudeau owe her, and he will (if the Liberals win).”

Read more. 

Federal Election 2015: Kathleen Wynne Wading Into Campaign

Published on Aug. 20, 2015, in the Huffington Post Canada.

Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne has frequently waded into federal politics through clashes with Stephen Harper, but in the midst of a federal election campaign she isn’t easing off — she has jumped in with both feet.

“Maybe the personal animosity between Wynne and Harper — whatever triggered it — is governing both their behaviours,” Kay said in an interview.

Read more.

Harper not the only one eager to criticize Wynne and Ontario’s pension plan as a ‘payroll tax hike’

Published on Aug. 11, 2015 in the National Post.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper was so eager to lambaste Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne’s pension plan announcement Tuesday, he asked himself the question.

Opposition parties and interest groups were as quick as Harper to criticize Wynne’s plans, but Barry Kay, a professor of political science at Wilfrid Laurier University, isn’t so sure the ORPP will matter much on election day.

Read more.  

Is municipal de-amalgamation in Ontario the answer?

Published July 22, 2015, in the Waterloo Region Record.

Study after study has found that the benefits of municipal amalgamation have failed to materialize.

Costs generally increase after amalgamation, largely due a harmonization of costs and wages, and increases in service-efficiency remain elusive. The transitional costs after amalgamation are often quite high and, in some cases, reduce or even eliminate any anticipated immediate cost savings.

Mounting evidence suggests amalgamation in Ontario has not led to more efficient service production or delivery.

Municipal mergers reduce competition between municipalities, which weakens incentives for efficiency and responsiveness to local needs, while also reducing the choice for residents to find a community that best matches their ideal taxation and service rates. Since municipal mergers rarely result in boundaries that encompass entire metropolitan regions, externalities may still exist in transportation and land-use planning. And municipal amalgamations have sometimes forced rural residents to pay for urban services they do not have access to.

Continue Reading. 

Premier Kathleen Wynne should take on the mantle of reconciliation

 Published June 15, 2015, in the Toronto Star.

Earlier this month, Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne criticized the federal government for delivering a “disappointing” response to the Truth and Reconciliation Commission’s 94 recommendations. By doing so, Wynne was engaging in what has become an almost institutionalized form of doing politics in Canada. Like many premiers before her, she chose to criticize the prime minister and the federal government for inaction rather than taking action herself.

Although coverage of the report almost exclusively focused on the role of the federal government, a closer reading of the executive summary suggests that there is ample room for provincial and territorial governments to embark on reconciliation on their own. In other words, this issue doesn’t have to suffer the death of a thousand intergovernmental meetings like many other issues in the past.

Read more.

Former NWT Premier George Braden Died on Monday Night

George Braden was the first NWT government leader to be called “premier” in the NWT. I got to know George when I was completing my project on territorial devolution in the Canadian north.  At time, he was working for another former territorial Premier, Dennis Patterson, who is the Senator for Nunavut.  I had interviewed George in Ottawa, I think, several years ago and was amazed at the vast amount of knowledge he had and how generous he was in sharing it.

Several years later, when the Institute of Intergovernmental Relations invited me to contribute a chapter to its 2011 State of the Federation book, I readily agreed but only if George would co-author and happily, he agreed.  And boy was a glad, because his knowledge of territorial intergovernmental relations was vast and unparalleled.  Check out our chapter here (ungated) and you can find the entire book here.

George was a real joy to work with, whether as a co-author or simply as someone I could bounce my crazy ideas off of about the north.  We had, at one point, talked about doing a conference and book on the north, with Kirk Cameron.  The goal was to gather all of the territorial “founders” together to talk about “the once and future” political and constitutional development of Canada’s territories but much to my regret, we never put aside time to do it.

Here’s the story about George’s passing.

LISPOP Observes the 2015 Alberta Election

Few provincial elections garner as much attention as the current campaign in Alberta, about to reach its conclusion when voters hit the polls tomorrow. Furthermore, Alberta elections tend to be a foregone conclusion, with the incumbent Progressive Conservatives assumed to return to power. This was true since 1971, and before then, the Social Credit solidly held on to power for a generation. If polls are to be believed, and there does appear to be a consensus, on Tuesday voters in Alberta are likely to make history. This is certainly an election night to watch, and one that we here at LISPOP have been observing.

Here are three contributions.

1) Most recently, Geoff Stevens compares Alberta Premier Jim Prentice’s possible misjudgment in calling an early election to the similar fate that visited former Ontario premier David Peterson in 1990.

2) Simon Kiss challenges the long-held assumption that Alberta is Canada’s safe repository of right-wing ideology.

3) Christopher Alcantara commented on former Wildrose leader Danielle Smith’s ultimate political descent.

 

Polls show Alberta ready for change

Published May 4, 2015, in the Waterloo Region Record and Guelph Mercury.

The desire for change is the most powerful force in politics. We are seeing that in Alberta where voters will go to the polls on Tuesday in a provincial election that appears destined to end the Progressive Conservatives’ 44-year stranglehold on power. All the pollsters agree: the New Democrats will take over in Alberta, their only reservation being whether the NDP will emerge with a majority or minority government.

Change? In Alberta? An orange government in the bluest of Canadian provinces? NDP Premier Rachel Notley? Wow!

But wait. Is it possible that the pollsters – all of them – are wrong? Continue reading

In theory, yes, and given the polling fraternity’s abysmal record in the last Alberta election in 2012, a healthy dose of skepticism is warranted. But it seems highly unlikely that they are all wrong this time. By last week, the various polls were all showing the NDP well ahead, with about 38 per cent of the popular vote, which given the fragmented vote on the right, might be just enough to eke out a bare majority.  The one thing the pollsters did not agree on was whether rookie Premier Jim Prentice’s Tories were in second place or in third, behind Wildrose.

As of Friday, the poll consolidator ThreeHundredEight.com put the NDP comfortably ahead with 41.8 per cent of the vote to 26.0 for Wildrose, 24.7 for the PCs and just 4.7 for the Liberals. By then, the desperate Conservatives had mounted a “fear” campaign to warn the people of the dreadful consequences of electing the socialist hordes. The campaign apparently fell flat. A new poll, by Forum Research on Saturday, showed the NDP at 42, Wildrose at 24 and Conservatives 21. Numbers like those would yield a majority NDP government with about 50 members in the 87-seat Alberta Legislature.

What happened to turn Alberta from Tory blue to NDP orange? There were several factors. To start with, Prentice was so overconfident that he called the election a year before it was required; he might have consulted David Peterson, the former Liberal premier of Ontario, who did the same thing in 1990, thereby paving the way for the election of Bob Rae and the NDP. Peterson could have told Prentice that voters don’t like being taken for granted or being pressured into unnecessary elections.

The collapse of world oil prices and its impact on Alberta’s economy, both in terms of job losses and lost government revenue, was a huge factor; it caused Albertans to question some of their political assumptions and allegiances. Prentice’s budget, with its tax increases (on individuals but not on corporations), austerity measures and a record deficit, made matters worse – and the premier dug his hole deeper when he suggested Albertans look in the mirror to see who is responsible for the province’s financial woes.

He came to epitomize cynical old-style politics when he tried to destroy the official opposition by using policy concessions to buy off the Wildrose leader and eight of her caucus members. He was outperformed by Rachel Notley in the leaders’ debate. She and her New Democrats came to represent change, while Prentice and his party stood for the status quo or worse.

Forty-four years is quite a record. Let’s think back to 1971 and what was going on away back then. The Vietnam war was raging. Charles Manson and three women followers were convicted of murdering Hollywood star Sharon Tate and seven others. The Toronto Telegram died and the Toronto Sun was born. It would be another two years before the Watergate scandal would burst on the world. The top song in the Canada was “Sweet City Woman” by The Stampeders. There were no cell phones yet, and personal computers were not generally available in 1971.

And in August, 1971, with political change in the air, a young Calgary lawyer named Peter Lougheed led a band of Tories to an upset election victory in Alberta. The rest is – or was – history.

Springtime in Alberta…

“Springtime in Alberta” is one of my favourite Ian Tyson songs and it’s proving to be somewhat prescient in light of the current election campaign.

Just like spring time in Alberta
Warm sunny days endless skies of blue
Then without a warning
Another winter storm comes raging through

Although the polls are show a remarkable lead for the Alberta NDP, something most people would have considered to be impossible just three weeks ago, many people also seem to think that another winter storm may yet blow through this campaign, just as it did in the dying days of the 2012 campaign. This time, though, it might not be the Wildrose losing its lead, but the NDP.

I won’t go out on a limb to make a prediction, but I do think that the lead in the public opinion polls should be taken more seriously than most people currently are and that a change in government is possible. The graph below shows the results of each public opinion survey published in the 2012 and 2015 elections. Obviously, the NDP has a big, big lead in current public opinion surveys and it’s getting bigger in the last day or two. Continue reading

These results do not count for undecided voters, and that will certainly be something to watch in the next 4 days.

ab_polls
As people point out, the Wildrose Party had a substantial lead in 2012, and that evaporated. This is true. But it is worth pointing out that polls can differ from final vote intention for two reasons. Not to put it too bluntly, but they can get public opinion wrong or public opinion can change between the publication of poll results and the casting of ballots.

The fear with most polls these days, and particularly in this campaign, is that because they are online surveys of voluntary panel participants or automated “robo-polls,” they can overestimate those who have the strongest motivation to stick around and participate. IN this case, it seems plausible to think that the polls could be overestimating opposition party support, given how long in the tooth the PC dynasty is and some of its more spectacular instances of “foot in mouth disease.” Are the 2015 polls overestimating support for the NDP and underestimating support for the PCs? Maybe. But it’s worth it to cast a close eye on the final data point on the 2012 graph. The field work for that poll was done the day before the election and the results were published that night. It showed more than a 10% point jump in support for the PCs and a corresponding drop for the Wildrose. And there were still another 12-24 hours until people interested in casting a ballot, did so. There are a lot of voters who tell survey researchers that they make up their mind on who to vote for the day of the election. To me it seems at least as plausible to suggest that the 2012 polls were actually accurately gauging public opinion over the course of the campaign but that many voters made a final switch at the last minute back to the PCs. Polls weren’t necessarily wrong; they were just measuring decided vote intention, which, it perhaps bears emphasizing, can change once undecideds make up their mind.

The other reason that some people are hesitant to believe that the NDP could win are because it is Alberta and, in the words of Premier Prentice, “Alberta is not an NDP province”. Essentially, this the belief that Albertans are fundamentally opposed to government intervention.

This argument is one of the more common ones but is it far too simple to accept and rule out an NDP victory on Tuesday. The graph below shows the difference between Alberta and Canadian public opinion on a more or less random set of questions from the Canada Election Study. For each item, I took the percentage of Canadians that selected the most liberal option and subtracted from it the percentage of Albertans that selected the same item. The y-axis shows the difference in percentage points between Canadians and Albertans selecting the most liberal option. Positive values suggest that more Albertans selected the most liberal option than Canadians; negative values suggest that more Canadians selected the most liberal option.

cdn_ab_gap

Two things stand out to me in this graph: First, on most of the items, the gap between Albertans and Canadians has been getting smaller. Perhaps this is a product of demographic change in Alberta, as people have flocked to the province to participate in the growing economy, perhaps not. Either way, the gaps between Albertans and Canadians don’t seem to be that large. Keep in mind there is an margin of error associated with each measurement of 2-3 percentage points. There is a slight tilt toward conservatism, but it’s not so dramatic that we should think an NDP win on Tuesday to be impossible. In fact, in 2008 and 2011 there were more Albertans expressing a willingness to increase personal income taxes, than in the rest of Canada. Moreover, the gap between people who strongly disagree that job creation should be solely left to the private sector has been dropping.

And if public opinion isn’t convincing enough, government actions also paint a more complex picture. The PC governments that have governed Alberta have been far more flexible than their caricature suggests. In the 1970s, the Lougheed government purchased an airline and directly subsidized the nascent oil sands industry. Despite a turn to the right under Premier Klein, the government of Alberta remains the only government in Canada with a Crown corporation dedicated to retail financial operations (i.e. it owns a bank). Currently, Alberta has the highest per capita expenditures on health care , but they have the lowest taxes.

But to me, this is not the mark of an ideologically conservative population, but quite a normal one, one that wants things good things without paying for them. Up until now, the Progressive Conservatives have had the fiscal resources to provide both those for Albertans. To me, that is the bigger reason for the PCs’ longevity: not any kind of deep, ideological commitment to right-wing governance in the population. And the combination of a tough recent budget that raised taxes and fees, an early election despite fixed-election legislation and frankly, a brutally, inept campaign mean that the polls should be taken seriously.

It is, in fact, springtime in Alberta.

Full public disclosure: Publish water bills?

Published Apr. 30, 2015, in the Winnipeg Free Press.

Over the last several years, accountability and transparency issues have been at the forefront of discussions and news coverage of Canadian politics. The usual targets have been politicians such as former MP Bev Oda, former Alberta premier Alison Redford, and senators Mike Duffy, Mac Harb and Pamela Wallin. Other popular targets include the “sunshine list” of public-sector employees at all levels of government, such as professors, teachers and police officers, among others.

The usual narrative in these stories is how we need more accountability and transparency in our governments. In practice, this means the government should post more public information about these politicians and employees, such as salaries, benefits and expenses, and to include as much detail as possible about their office, travel and technology expenditures.

Read more…

 

Rethink policies on extracurricular activities

Published Apr. 23, 2015, in the Waterloo Region Record.

Over the last several months, Ontario teachers have been negotiating new collective agreements with their school boards and in some cases, with the Ontario government.

As students inch closer to graduation day, some parents have started to worry about the possibility of teacher strikes or school lockouts, the former of which is occurring in Durham this week. Others are concerned about the possibility of “work to rule,” where teachers protest the pace of their negotiations by ceasing all extracurricular activities to focus solely on teaching the curriculum.

In most cases, work-to-rule is the first line of defence for teachers when collective bargaining hits a wall. This strategy is designed to put pressure on the school boards to negotiate in good faith without jeopardizing the ability of students to complete their studies.

When work-to-rule happens, however, many parents and students complain bitterly about how unfair it is that they must suffer as innocent bystanders in the dispute between teachers and school boards.

Read more…

“Albertans Have Spoken!” or Maybe Not: The Curious Coverage of Danielle Smith

Earlier this week, Danielle Smith failed to win the PC nomination in her riding and the knives were out.  Some commentators and politicians mentioned how “Albertans have spoken” or how “Albertans” didn’t like her floor-crossing behaviour and punished her accordingly. Continue reading

There are a lot of angles to this story but one that hasn’t been corrected is this fallacy that Albertans passed judgement on Smith.  Albertans didn’t judge Smith.  It was the PC members of Highwood who did that. To say that Albertans didn’t like Smith’s decision and so Albertans punished her by supporting Carrie Fisher is a little disingenuous.

A better test of Albertan views about Smith would have been if she had won the PC nomination but lost her seat in the upcoming general election. Unfortunately, we won’t get a chance to see how that test would have played out.

 

The Sunshine List is all breadth and no depth

Published Apr. 1, 2015, in the Waterloo Region Record.

Did you know that the Region of Waterloo’s chief administrative officer, Michael Murray, made $263,355.12 last year?

We know this thanks to the Public Sector Salary Disclosure — more commonly known as the Sunshine List — which provides a yearly financial picture of the province’s highest public sector earners.

Unfortunately, the list cannot tell us much else and leaves us with a lot of unanswered questions about value and efficiency.

The annual Sunshine List is the result of the Public Sector Salary Disclosure Act, legislation brought forward by the Mike Harris government in 1996.

The act requires that organizations receiving public funding from the Province of Ontario disclose the names, positions, salaries and taxable benefits of employees who are paid annual salaries of $100,000 or more. Currently, this legislation applies to the Government of Ontario, Crown agencies, municipalities, hospitals, public health and school boards, universities, colleges, Hydro One, Ontario Power Generation, and other public sector employers who receive a significant level of funding from the province.

Read more…

Forget Robert Munsch, kindergartners need skills training

Published Mar. 21, 2015, in the Waterloo Region Record.

Recently, the government of Ontario announced that it would be asking employers and industry groups to participate in a process designed to transform how universities are funded and operated in Ontario.

In many ways, this announcement is unsurprising in that it is simply the latest development in a long-term trend toward pushing universities to become places that focus more strongly on training students to meet the needs of the Canadian economy.

Universities, according to this vision, need to become sophisticated versions of community colleges, providing students with high-end skills and training to meet the current and future demands of the marketplace.

Predictably, this recent announcement has generated considerable opposition and disgust among my academic colleagues. I, on the other hand, applaud the government for taking this bold and visionary stance in provincial education policy.

Read more…